Analysis of market demand and industry development trend of China's reducer industry in 2018 [figure]

Industrial robot mainly includes control system, power system and main body mechanical structure The reducer is the core part of the transmission device of the substructure of the power system. Its main function is to reduce speed and increase torque. In terms of value, the reducer accounts for more than 30% of the manufacturing cost of the robot.

Value share of core parts of industrial robots

Source: public data sorting

In 2017, the sales volume of domestic industrial robots reached 131100, an increase of 68.10% year on year. In 2017, the global sales volume of industrial robots was 346000, an increase of 17.69% over the same period in 2016. In the context of the outbreak of ontology sales and the lack of capacity of international giants, domestic reducer manufacturers ushered in a valuable window period to realize large-scale production, and some manufacturers took the lead in obtaining large demand orders of more than 10000 sets. It mainly analyzes the domestic reducer Market from the perspective of quantity and price.

I. rapid growth of reducer demand of domestic manufacturers

From the current node, the domestic main body manufacturer's reducer demand market is the main penetration field of domestic reducer. According to the calculation, the demand of RV Reducer and harmonic reducer for domestic industrial robots in 2018 and 2019 is 19.09/248100, 80500 / 104700 respectively.

Sales volume of domestic robot body in 2017-2019

Source: public data sorting

Number of domestic robot bodies in 2017-2019

2017-2019 number of harmonic reducers for domestic industrial robots

Demand analysis of RV Reducer and harmonic reducer for domestic industrial robots in 2017-2019

The estimation basis for the share of various types of robots: in 2017, the largest shipment of six axis robots in China was Everett, with a sales volume of about 2500 units; the next was nearly 2400 units from Easton; and the shipment of Qianjiang robots was 1000 units, ranking the sixth in China. The total sales volume of the top six manufacturers in China is nearly 12000. Based on this, the sales volume of six axis robots of the national ontology manufacturers is expected to reach 23000, accounting for about 60% of the total sales volume.

II. Prediction of competition pattern of domestic reducer

At present, Nantong zhenkang has the most abundant supply performance in the history of domestic RV Reducer manufacturers. In March 2017, it signed a supply contract of 15000 sets with Shanghai Huanyan, and signed a supply order of 3000 sets with Everett at the beginning of 2018. This year, domestic reducer manufacturers have entered into a large-scale period. Following the signing of a 10000 unit purchase contract between double ring drive and Everett, zhongdalide has won a large demand list of 30000 units of Bronte, which is the largest single business volume of domestic manufacturers at present.
Based on the delivery expectation of each manufacturer in 2018 and the delivery demand of RV Reducer of domestic ontology manufacturer, the expected market share of each manufacturer in China is calculated In 2018, Nantong zhenkang is expected to deliver 25000 sets, which is the first one among domestic manufacturers, with an estimated market share of 13.10%; double ring drive and Qinchuan machine tool follow closely, with an estimated shipment of 20000 sets, with a market share of more than 10%. (considering that the downstream application field of RV Reducer produced by Nabo and Shanghai Electromechanical joint venture subsidiary is wider, and the customer group includes four families, so the market share is not directly calculated.

III. localization trend of reducer

The localization of core components for industrial robots runs through the whole process In the field of control system, the domestic excellent manufacturers include Huichuan technology, Easton, Huazhong CNC, Gugao technology, yingweiteng, etc., and they have begun to be applied in robot body manufacturing on a large scale, for example, Qianjiang robot control system basically purchases self consolidating technology; in the field of servo system, Huichuan technology and Easton products have steadily increased their market share in the domestic market, and Huichuan technology is practical Now almost all the core parts from the controller to the encoder are covered in production; in the field of reducer, double ring drive and zhongdalide are expected to achieve profit and loss balance this year, and next year, they are expected to achieve large-scale profit under high volume expectation Therefore, the localization of the core parts of the wheel industrial robot is expected and gradually implemented.